Patriot Games

Multiple NBC News sources in the US Congress and the Pentagon said that Ukraine would no longer be receiving Howitzer munitions, Hellfire missiles, precision-guided missile systems, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles or grenade launchers. Experts consider these weapons to be crucial for Ukraine’s defence against Russian missiles.

“I don’t want to sound too conspiratorial, but the list of weapons seems to contain the munitions that are hardest to replace elsewhere,” military researcher Kirill Mikhailov told Novaya Gazeta Europe. “First and foremost, we’re talking about GMLRS missiles, which can destroy targets with a high level of precision up to 60 kilometres away, and Patriot PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles, which are the only ones in the Ukrainian arsenal capable of shooting down ballistic missiles,” he added.

Even if these munitions can be partially replaced by European supplies, some shortfall is inevitable, Mikhailov believes. But when it comes to air defences, most Russian airstrikes use drones, which can be successfully shot down by European air defence systems, aviation and interceptor drones, which Ukraine is actively investing in, he notes.

The Pentagon’s decision appears to concern the final supplies approved during the Biden administration, military expert and reserve Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) colonel Roman Svitan told Novaya Europe, noting that the AFU was “really counting on this batch … of mainly defensive weapons”.

“It will weaken Ukrainian defence and air defence capabilities,” Svitan asserted. “Suspending the supply of Patriot missiles is effectively an invitation to the Russian army to strike unprotected Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles — only the Patriot system can shoot down Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles and Korean KN-23s,” he stressed.

“European air defence systems can only shoot down cruise missiles,” Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and former Ukrainian secret service official, agreed. 

Svitan believes European countries still have stockpiles of Patriot missiles, which Ukraine now hopes they will deliver. EU countries can also provide the AFU with artillery shells.

Besides the Patriot systems, other interruptions in supply are not as critical, Stupak believes. In recent years, Ukraine has increasingly replaced artillery shells and anti-tank grenade launchers with drones, he notes. Drones fly further than munition, and are much more accurate. Anticipating an interruption in US aid, Ukraine ramped up production of its own shells, while also buying up Soviet-era shells, which are still widely used by the AFU.

“Stopping supplies will directly lead to the death of Ukrainian servicemen and civilians, of course, but not to the immediate collapse of the front or the destruction of cities in the Ukrainian hinterland,” Mikhailov said.

“I think we have just witnessed a deal. Donald Trump received a promise from Putin not to meddle in the conflict between the US and Israel and Iran if the US stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine,” said Svitan. “Ukraine is being sacrificed for a solution to the problems in the Middle East.”

Trump may also be trying to put pressure on Kyiv again, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender, Svitan suggested. “The fact that supplies haven’t been cancelled, only suspended, may mean this is a bargaining chip in a bigger game,” he continued. “Trump still hopes that he can achieve peace by sacrificing large parts of Ukraine.”